Thought: Who's the Bigger Threat, Apple or HP?

Microsoft has had a tough few months, but its market share losses are slowing down and the general acceptance of Windows Phone 7 as one of the top smartphone platforms have been reassuring signs in their favor. But Microsoft, as if it weren't already bad enough, now has an even tougher journey in the months ahead: they have to contend with their biggest rival and outperform their former ally.

Apple is breaking out of its schedule and Microsoft could suffer severe collateral damage.

Let's start with the former: Apple. There has been a lot of talk that Apple could be launching its next generation iPhone later this fall, instead of their usual Summer timeslot at WWDC. When one of the leading tech giants suddenly changes its pattern, the entire industry takes note because everyone else changes their pattern. Apple is breaking out of its schedule and Microsoft could suffer severe collateral damage. As you may know, Mango (or 7.5) is slated to release this Fall with many predicting a September/October timeframe. But recent rumors about the iPhone 5 also peg Apple to release it around the same time. So unless Microsoft feels extremely confident going into the launch of Mango, they could have a serious problem on their hands: the critical holiday season Microsoft was likely gunning for could now belong to Apple's next iPhone.

With Apple relinquishing its Summer stronghold, one of Microsoft's former partners could end up benefiting the most. Last year HP purchased Palm, the company behind the struggling WebOS, and has since invested heavily in the hopes for success in a market where they have largely been absent. In February, HP unveiled three new WebOS-powered devices: the diminutive Veer, the competitive Pre 3, and the super-sized multitasking Touchpad tablet. Ignoring the Touchpad, HP will have two smartphones on the market attacking two different market segments. The Veer 4G was just announced for AT&T and is set to launch at $99.99 on a contract and the Pre 3 is expected to launch at the standard $199.99 price by the Summer...and that's exactly where Apple's launch move has helped HP. The company now has a significantly better chance of success with their WebOS devices without Apple sucking the air out of the entire industry.

Microsoft will be absent while their nearest competitor is launching new devices

What's more, WebOS isn't too far away from Windows Phone 7 in U.S. market share and with a successful Summer launch those numbers could potentially leapfrog Microsoft. Ironically, HP was originally announced as a Windows Phone hardware partner and publicly stated it was ready to bring a smartphone to market. But since absorbing Palm, HP has clearly gone back on that pledge and sees more potential for their own platform to compete in the industry. Even without all of that corporate drama, the fact that Microsoft will be absent while their nearest competitor is launching new devices into the market is worrying to say the least.

So now one really has to ask: who is the bigger threat to Microsoft? If Apple's iPhone 5 launch is anywhere in the vicinity of Microsoft's Mango unveiling, it could spell disaster for Windows Phone even if Nokia is at their side. On the contrary, HP also has a lot of potential to catch up and even surpass Microsoft during their expected absence in the now-vacant Summer season. Of course, all of this is speculation based on a widely-spread but unconfirmed rumor and if Apple does stick around in Summer, HP would end up in the hot seat. But either way Microsoft is in a race for mindshare, and Apple and HP are their biggest hurdles yet.